A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
