Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
